This year’s question: Can the Fed bring inflation under control without causing a recession?

Every year we seem to publish the “Dog Days of August” edition. And there is always new fodder for the edition. Certainly, August a few years ago was unique because we were in the height of the pandemic. This year, the battle between good and evil is taking place within our economy. What is the good? A remarkable jobs machine cranking out hundreds of thousands of jobs every month which is contributing to a resilient economy. This week we will get another picture of the employment situation representing what is right with today’s picture.

What is evil? The Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates in an attempt to knock the resilient economy off its perch. It seems the Fed will not rest until they pull the economy into a recession. The bottom line is that interest rates are going higher for a longer period of time because the Fed does not want the economy to be doing this well. Of course, they are using this economic poison to fight another evil – inflation. The Fed would be happy to have an expanding economy if inflation was under control.

So, the real Dog Days of August question this year is—can the Fed bring inflation under control without causing a recession? We think everyone in America should go on vacation in August and find out the answer when they get back in September. Did we mention that the Fed is not meeting in August? Even they need a Dog Days of August breather. Maybe our August editions will feature a beach forecast. Just watch out for dog sharks!