Will the Federal Reserve slow its pace of rate hikes?

Just about one month ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, and it was like a breath of fresh air. Really, the bad inflation news we have experienced since the beginning of this year was suffocating to say the least. And then we received a report that indicated that inflation came in below market expectations.

Mind you, it did not say that inflation had disappeared. And it was only one data point, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen so aptly pointed out. But when you are getting hit on the head with a blunt instrument and it stops even for a few seconds, it feels like a relief. We point this out because one week from now we will see the CPI released for the month of November. If it shows that inflation is easing, could this be the beginning of the end of the Fed’s campaign to raise rates? Recent remarks from Fed Chairman Powell shows they may be leaning that way.

Last week we had the jobs report. The increase in jobs of 263,000 was seen as stronger than expected. The unemployment rate remained at a very low 3.7%. Plenty of attention was focused upon another measure of inflation – wage growth. The 0.6% increase in wages from October to November brought the annual growth to 5.1%, which was higher than expected. Yes, last month’s inflation report was just one data point. But there is a lot more data on the economy’s dance card. And the Fed starts their meeting next week just as the November CPI numbers are released.